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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Veep-Veep, Veep-Veep, His Horn Went Veep-Veep-Veep
The degree of media interest in the "veepstakes," as the putative presidential nominees' approaching selection of running mates has been termed, could hardly be higher. The reasons are not far to seek.
Democratic nominee Barack Obama has proved to be extremely weak before an audience of anything but hard-core loyalists. The Saddleback Church event was a perfect demonstration of his inability to face anything but a loyal crowd, and with a prepared presentation at that. Democrats have exhibited impressive party unity this campaign season, despite the bitter nomination battle Obama faced from Hillary Clinton, but Democratic Party loyalists alone will be insufficient to elect him.
Republican nominee John McCain, who has consistently defied his party and its nominal ideology during his years in the Senate, appeals more powerfully to moderates and independents than to the core of the Republican Party. Unless he can somehow persuade conservative Republicans that he'll be adequately faithful to their principles as president, he has no chance of prevailing in November.
For the first time since World War II at least, the choice of a v ice-presidential running mate appears to be a tactical stroke of some importance.
Conventional wisdom holds that the VP nominee should be a "safe" choice, a figure well regarded by party loyalists but not so deeply dyed that he'll cost critical votes in a swing state. That would certainly be the case in a contest where the nominees can claim both an adequate hold on their party loyalists and sufficient appeal to the nonaligned voters to make their campaigns plausible. But neither McCain nor Obama can say that.
Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign was the most recent in which the choice of a running mate might have had some impact on the outcome. As it developed, the Johnson campaign, buttressed by incumbency and a brilliant, vicious set of attack ads, was indefeasible, but all the same, there was considerable interest in who Goldwater and Johnson would select. Goldwater's choice of Representative William Miller of New York proved insufficient; Johnson's choice of Senator Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota, while astute, was of little consequence.
This year, the "veepstakes" might just make the critical difference.
Ironically -- and what does your Curmudgeon enjoy more than a good irony? -- the probability is high that vice-presidential nominees adequate to gain the affections of the relevant blocs are precisely those the presidential nominees would reject for visceral reasons. Obama needs a moderate Democrat credible on national-security issues; McCain needs a solid conservative committed to defending the borders and nominating strict-constructionist judges. Yet neither Obama nor McCain would be able to stomach the required choice.
Obama is hooked on his "rock star" status, and is incapable of sharing the limelight effectively with a Democrat of even moderately contrasting views. McCain is simply incapable of allowing a message other than his own to reach the national audience without stepping on it. On ego-assessment criteria alone, neither of these men is qualified to be the chief executive of the United States or its representative to the other nations of the world -- and the voters know it.
This foreshadows an election in which the critical factor will be turnout and the impact of negative campaigning: which candidate will persuade the other's supporters to stay home in sufficient numbers to defeat him.
Your Curmudgeon is intrinsically disposed toward the cynical view, but this time around, even he is disturbed by the prospects come November 4. For the supremely cynical, character-free Barack Obama to become our president is insupportable. For John McCain, incapable of hewing to a principle other than his own popularity and ascension to supreme power, to rise to the Oval Office is an equally dismal prospect. Yet one of these men will almost certainly become the next President of these United States.
And the one who steels himself better to the tactically wise choice of a running mate will have the edge.
Stay tuned.
