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Thursday, May 08, 2008
November Looms…
...and John McCain has to be worried about the contest he'll face then.
Mrs. Clinton is near to the end of her string. Her strategy of appealing to the superdelegates on the grounds of her superior popular-vote tally can no longer prevail as originally conceived. Her last hope of displacing Barack Obama lies in persuading the Democratic National Convention to recognize the Michigan and Florida delegations, both of which are pledged overwhelmingly to her. But that's a long shot, given the makeup of the committee likely to rule on such a thing.
So it appears it will be Obama on Row A and McCain on Row B come November. The senator from Arizona has shown little inclination to campaign seriously since he secured the required majority of Republican delegates. From that, many conservatives and Republican partisans have inferred that he lacks the energy required to contest the Democratic machine that will rally to put its nominee into the White House. It's a tough assertion to counter.
But that assessment omits Obama's other important opponent, the one who has the most to lose should he prevail in November: Mrs. William Clinton.
Both the Clintons are serious about returning to the White House. Their lives are meaningless outside of high public office and continuous public attention. Given the unmatched priority they place on their renascence as the First Couple, it is inevitable that they will devote all their resources to defeating Barack Obama -- because only Obama's defeat will make possible a third Clinton bid for the presidency in 2012.
Should Barack Obama win the White House this fall, no matter how disastrous his presidency, he would be the Democrats' 2012 nominee. That would relegate Mrs. Clinton to 2016 possibilities at the earliest...at which date she would be 69 years old.
But even the Clinton machine, as formidable as it is, cannot guarantee Obama's defeat in November. John McCain is an unusually weak candidate. Not only is he disinclined to campaign; he's also seemingly determined to distance himself from the best asset any candidate could possibly have: the incumbent president of these United States.
Given the degree of disdain McCain has shown them, it's understandable that conservative Republicans should see little reason to pull the lever for liberal-centrist John McCain. If the Clintons cannot marshal enough internal opposition to Barack Obama to fragment his support, and if the Arizona senator cannot attract the conservative "base" back into his fold, Obama will win -- and America will have its first outright socialist president to cope with.
Let's hope the country has the resources to cope.
Comments
Here’s a thought to cause some dread.
As an expat American with some interest in the political scene, McCain has always sounded like a demopublican (or whichever portmanteau would best describe his “moderate” conservatism) to me. I know that none of the candidates are required to announce running mates at this time, but what about the thought of a Obama/X vs. McCain/Clinton race? Its not entirely improbable, even though it should be in a sane world. McCain seems to be the type who values compromise and negotiation (from my reading of his legislative history, e.g. McCain/Feingold) - and it would really toss a monkeywrench into the Democratic voting bloc. Even though the thought may cause involuntatry catastrophic nausea, I assert the possibility, and stand aside to see the reaction.Posted by on 05/09/2008 at 10:54 PMFDR and Wilson weren’t outright socialist?
Posted by Dave M on 05/10/2008 at 01:23 AM
