Sunday, March 21, 2010
Voting Day Extravaganza!
I might be in and out today some, but I’ll update when I can.
OPENING DAY: The situation is every bit as confused today as it was yesterday. Fox News, however, had some interesting reportage.
First, Steny Hoyer was on admitting that he still did not have the votes. Oh, but I thought it was all locked up, Steny? That confirms my suspicions from last night’s “Twilight Zone” update. Major Garrett also reported that wheeling and dealing continues between Obama and the Stupak bloc over some kind of executive order dealing with abortion. I have no idea what the significance of that will end up being, but Major also reported that Obama is unwilling to sign such an order unless he knows it will bring in enough votes to put him over the top.
That is extremely interesting. It either implies that Obama is worried about a pro-choice revolt if he does offer to sign Stupak’s order, or there aren’t enough yeas even with the Stupak bloc. I just woke up a little while ago, so I’m not going to do the math on the whip counts and see how that might be the case, but if true it does signify more resistance to Obamacare than we’ve thought.
Some have been saying Pelosi would never call the vote without having enough yeas, or that every announced nay has been signed and approved by Empress Pelosi and Emperor Hoyer. I doubt that’s the case. I believe she truly is gambling today. Right now it looks like a game of chicken with Stupak over whether he is actually going to kill this “historic” reform.
There is precedent for this. In 2003, Tom Delay, who was every bit as partisan and effective at hammering his caucus as Pelosi (his nickname was “The Hammer”!), called a vote on Bush’s Medicare Part D bill while he was still several votes shy. He had to hold the vote open for over 3 hours while he arm-twisted extremely reluctant Republicans into voting for it. In the end he won, but Medicare Part D suffered more from the fact that Republicans didn’t like it ideologically than it did from massive unpopularity with the public.
Updates to come.
QUICK UPDATE: I should add something to the above. The note about Obama not wanting to deal with Stupak unless the deal would put the legislation over the top could mean a couple of other things as well. For instance, it’s possible they are close enough they feel they don’t need Stupak’s coalition, in which case they would rather not gratuitously purchase a larger margin at the expense of caving to pro-life demands.
I’ve heard through the dextrosphere grapevine that, as with yesterday, a planned Stupak presser at noon has been canceled. Obama and Pelosi may want to work some of the other Democrats before returning to the table with Stupak for yet another go around, or maybe Stupak has decided the administration’s meager offerings really aren’t worth 30 pieces of silver. Who knows?
GAME OVER: Looks like the gamble paid off. Stupak appears to be a yes. Wonderful.
I had a choice of titles for an article tomorrow: “Disaster Averted” or “Let Them Know Fear.” I guess I know which one I’ll be pulling out.
SUDDEN REVERSAL? Now Stupak is telling CNN he is still a “no.” Or is he? Politico is now marking him as a yes, citing “senior Democratic aides” as sources. I give up.
POCKET VOTES: The word is out there that Brian Baird (D-WA) will reverse and vote for the bill. He, along with John Tanner (D-TN), are the retiring members who are/were still undecided. My guess is these two represent Pelosi’s “pocket votes.” If Baird is switching, I imagine Tanner will too. Still, despite this fact, Pelosi and Obama are still negotiating with Stupak. This tells me even the pocket votes are not enough.
Call, call, call. And pray.
QUICK UPDATE: Tanner is actually staying no, while Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ, from the Tucson area) will stay yes. There may be fewer pocket votes to spare this time around.
INSIDE STRAIGHT: Drudge is reporting that someone overheard Pelosi telling Hoyer that they need to get to 217 “because none of these members wants to be the deciding vote.” Yeah, it’s hearsay, but interesting nonetheless. I’m guessing Hoyer and Pelosi are still down a couple of votes and are gambling, much as DeLay did in 2003, that they can twist the arms during the roll call to make up the difference. For a political junkie, it’s the closest politics ever comes to the 2-minute drill in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl, but for anyone who cares deeply about the future of the country and of health care, this is torture.
Much hinges on whether the White House can work out some kind of deal with Stupak, as well as the members who get cold feet about either their yea or nay votes and unexpectedly switch at the final roll call. Even members who have been swearing up and down that they are a yea or a nay could switch at the last minute. Consistency is not a politician’s virtue. It all depends on whether the yeas or nays are softer. This is totally unknown, even to Pelosi.
MONKEY WRENCH: Also via Drudge, Senate Republicans have apparently attempted to call a meeting between the Democrats and Senate Parliamentarian over provisions in the House reconciliation package that invalidates the entire bill in terms of the reconciliation process. I doubt it changes much today, but even small events could have great importance. Any damage the Senate Republicans can do to the credibility of the reconciliation process softens the yeas that depend on the “fixes” in the House package.
CAVEMAN: Stupak has now caved, accepting his 30 pieces of silver for the wanton slaughter of unborn children, as well as all the rest of the garbage this country will be eating for the next several years. Thanks Bart! We’ll see you in November, and then in hell. I’m done for the day. My post for tomorrow is already written. It’ll be up first thing.
